Price Action Overview

Since the past newsletter we saw price testing this 31k level consistently since, the last newsletter was written on the day of the first initial candle, and since then nearly every day there has been a attempt to break higher, resulting in continued wicks and constant pressure but no real breakout. This has been the longest running time that price has been suppressed underneath resistance at around 31k and also this is one of the longest times PA has been surprised over the past year, this could be explosive.

BTC/USD

I think the market is at a pretty important level right now, and a pivotal point in determining the PA for the remainder of the year, if we lose 30k once again then likely sellers will step back in, and spot buyers and leverage longs will lose their confidence in this being a breakout point and close accordingly, would not be a fun time.

That said, price holding above 30k is always a good sign and while this range between 30 and 31k is extremally tight, this technically is still bullish looking price action and until we lose 30k, things are looking pretty good here, not getting insta-rejected. I feel as though being cautiously optimistic here is the correct way of looking at the market.

ETH/USD

Looking at ETH/USD in comparison we can see much better structure with PA much easier to determine current targets and levels to buy the dip if we do see a breakdown, price has now been following this trendline since the start of last summer, higher lows generally in the macro with since the start of 2023, majority of dips being bought quickly. The $2000 level has been our resistance since the start of the bear market, we have seen no substantial hold above, and literally translates into the same level on BTC we are seeing at 31/30k.

The chart above still has some room for PA to move sideways and continue slowing grinding up, with a decision point coming later in summer, but likely due to the compressing price action being shown on BTC at resistance, likely BTC makes a decisive move soon dragging UP ETH in the progress. $1700 and sub seems to be the obvious buy zone right now, with $2/2.1 being the resistance level we need to break to shift the market back into a bullish mid/longterm trend.

This is a really important chart to be watching over the coming few weeks, I really would be very scared if the market decides to tank, and this trendline is flipped into a resistance level on lower timeframes. I think losing this trendline would be a significant flip back into a bear trend, and quickly could see us re-visiting 1.6k (one of the most significant support levels eth has generally) and maybe 1450. These would be two levels that I would buy instantly for longterm holdings, I would not expect price to maintain at these levels, and likely will only last a few days at the very most. More likely, at some point in the next 1/2 months, ETH flips 2/2.1k and runs towards 2.5k.

SOL/USD

Strong price action since the start of the month, one of the strongest performances we have seen over the past few weeks, and as we said in the previously newsletter once that $22 level was broken and flipped into LTF support, we would see a substantial move to the upside targeting close to $30, and so we saw a pretty explosive move, personally was not able to ride the trend and was still waiting for my bids to fill.

I have no interest in buying SOL at this price, on the strength of this current run, if we DO see a rejection and pullback on both BTC and ETH then we can easily expect that SOL will have one of the largest corrections across the market, a -25% drop would be more than in the norm deviation and could easily get to 30% pretty quickly.

I would love to be able to be a buyer back in the teens, still think that longterm and at the peak of the next bull market SOL will be back in the $100/300 range and the upside is something I would like to catch, just think the risk to buying right now is way higher than just waiting for some time of pullback and correction.