The crypto and Bitcoin markets continue to decline after the decision of the Federal Reserve (the Fed) or the United States central bank to hold the rate of increase in interest rates in the range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent. However, not only that, there are several other factors that keep Bitcoin prices under pressure.
Bitcoin price is now back below USD 27,000 or the equivalent of IDR 415.2 million (assuming an exchange rate of IDR 15,378 per US dollar) has crossed the support line and continues to move down. This decline in bitcoin correlates with the US stock market index which is also experiencing a correction.
Tokocrypto trader, Fyqieh Fachrur explained, Wall Street also slumped in a broad sell-off on Thursday as investors’ risk appetite was dashed by concerns that the Fed’s tight monetary policy would remain in place longer than expected.
The Fed’s decision to give a break is considered a neutral sentiment because it means that the benchmark interest rate has not yet risen, so it is considered that economic conditions are starting to improve even though food and energy prices such as gasoline are still continuing to rise.
Fyqieh added, even though it is neutral, currently the US dollar has managed to move up and US government bond yields reached their peak in 16 years a day after the Chair of the Fed, Jerome Powell, warned that inflation still has a long way to go before it approaches the target of 2 percent.
The crypto market tends to gain more bearish sentiment. This can be seen from the decline in the Fear and Greed index on Friday to 43 points in the Fear category, falling from 47 points in the Neutral category on Thursday.
Investors may feel concerned about the high volatility and uncertainty associated with Bitcoin price movements. This bearish sentiment could encourage more investors to sell their crypto, which in turn could amplify the price decline.
Previously, the last quarter of each year was historically the strongest for bitcoin (BTC) in terms of performance, with an average return of more than 35 percent over the past nine years.
In the latest report by crypto service provider Matrixport, Wednesday, September 20 2023, it predicts that the price of Bitcoin could reach USD 37,000 or the equivalent of IDR 568.5 million (assuming an exchange rate of IDR 15,368 per US dollar).
“If history is a guide, bitcoin could reach USD 37,000 by the end of the year,” wrote Matrixport head of research, Markus Thielen in his report, quoted from CoinDesk, Thursday (21/9/2023).
Thielen explained that October was also a very strong month, with positive bitcoin returns in seven of the last nine years, with an average return of 20 percent.
Matrixport technical analysis shows bitcoin recently made a new breakout signal. The last ten times this model was triggered, its price rose by an average of more than 9 percent in a short period of time.
Another potential catalyst in October is the second deadline for applications for bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), when the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) must announce or delay its decision to approve these ETFs, the report added.
The regulator said in August it was delaying its decision on whether or not to approve all spot bitcoin ETF applications until October.
