Introduction:

• Solana experienced significant growth in 2021, but faced challenges in 2022 including a bear market, FTX issues, and network outages.
• Despite doubts, Solana has shown resilience with outperforming prices, strengthened fundamentals, and growing developer momentum.

Key Takeaways:

1. Fundamentals for Future Growth:
   • Network upgrades, innovations like SuperTokens, and developer momentum position Solana well.
2. On-Chain Metrics:
   • Long-term holder accumulation and efficient liquidity use on Solana.
3. Major Narratives for 2024:
   • LSD-Fi, real-world assets (RWAs), and decentralized physical infrastructure (DePIN).
4. Risks:
   • Future FTX estate SOL unlocks and competition from Ethereum layer 2 solutions or new blockchains.

Five Fundamental Factors Propelling SOL:

1. Nearly 100% Uptime:
   • Improved stability with only one outage in 2023 due to the 1.14 network upgrade.
2. 1.16 Upgrade:
   • Dramatic reduction in RAM usage, introduction of confidential transfers, and enhanced support for zero-knowledge proofs.
3. Firedancer:
   • A revolutionary Solana validator client improving efficiency and scalability, setting the stage for scalability improvements.
4. SuperToken:
   • Major innovation offering novel capabilities, enhancing DeFi privacy, and enabling various use cases.
5. VC Funding Driving Ecosystem Innovation:
   • Despite an 85% decrease in monthly VC funding, Solana’s hackathons and developer momentum demonstrate strength.

Three On-Chain Metrics Supporting Bull Case:

1. Exchange Balances:
   • Recent uptick in exchange inflows, but long-term holders show accumulation.
2. Solana Active Stake:
   • Despite short-term price surge, total staked SOL has modestly increased, indicating strong long-term holder commitment.
3. Growing Trading Volume:
   • Solana’s trading revenue surpasses Ethereum, highlighting efficient liquidity use.

Three Exciting Narratives in 2024:

1. LSD-Fi:
   • Liquid staking protocols driving TVL growth, with potential for LSD-Fi protocols to attract new liquidity.
2. RWAs:
   • SuperToken’s launch enhancing real-world asset integration, fostering innovation in RWA protocols.
3. DePIN:
   • Emergence of Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN) on Solana, attracting new users and opportunities.

Potential Risks to Watch:

1. FTX Estate Holdings:
   • Unlocks of FTX estate SOL holdings may introduce selling pressure.
2. Increased Competition:
   • Possibility of other blockchains improving to outperform Solana, particularly monitoring Ethereum’s scaling advancements.

SOL Price Target 2025:

• Based on historical ratios and Solana capturing 5% of Ethereum’s market value, a target of 0.05 ETH/SOL is reasonable.
• Price projections range from $150 to $500 depending on Ethereum’s price.

Disclaimer: The information is not financial or investment advice, provided for entertainment purposes only, and individual responsibility is emphasized for capital-related decisions.